Gorbett’s Orbit: Michigan Has Mental Advantage, But It Won’t Matter This Year

Last year was my first year covering Ohio State football, and it took me about two weeks of the 2024 college football season to make up my mind on how the 2024 edition of The Game would go.

When Michigan was thoroughly outplayed by Texas 31-12 at the Big House last year, I was downright convinced the loaded Buckeyes would win and dominate in The Game that year.

I remained sure of Ohio State’s chances to snap its losing streak against its biggest rival until about 30 minutes prior to kickoff of The Game.

It was then that I saw Michigan players and coaches running off the field only to be greeted by a few Buckeyes who were on the left side of the field, wrapping up their warmups. Several Buckeyes were smack-talking the outgoing Wolverines, who then chirped back. But what stuck with me from that exchange was when Michigan head coach Sherrone Moore turned back to his players right before he was about to head into the tunnel and uttered two words loud enough for me to hear, ‘All talk.’

Then I watched as Michigan played its best game of the season and Ohio State played perhaps its worst game under head coach Ryan Day on the way to a stunning 13-10 loss.

The only thing that is clear to me heading into this year’s battle between Ohio State and Michigan is that the Wolverines have the mental advantage in the rivalry. This year, though, I don’t think it will mean the Buckeyes will lose.

What most Buckeye fans think of when they think about Ohio State’s mental issues against Michigan last year is the head-scratching game-planning and play-calling from Day and then-offensive coordinator Chip Kelly. 

Despite going against a fearsome defensive line and boasting one of the best receiver groups in the country, the Buckeyes ran the ball 27 times (with many of those runs coming up the middle) and passed the ball 33 times. It seemed to me and many others closely following Ohio State that pride played somewhat of a factor into how the gameplan was assembled. It seemed like—at least to some extent— the Buckeyes wanted to prove they could beat Michigan at their own game.

That approach clearly didn’t work well and the question now is, whether Day has learned his lesson in attacking Michigan? Through a few days of The Game week, I would say so far, so good. I haven’t yet heard Day mention that the team who wins the rushing battle often wins The Game, which is something he talked about ad nauseam last year.

But the more important question to me is if Day can get his team to play loose? The gameplanning issues of last year are not to be ignored, but I still don’t think that’s the main reason the Buckeyes lost The Game in 2024.

To me, the reason Ohio State lost to Michigan last year was the same reason it has lost to Michigan every year since 2021; the Buckeyes simply have not played well in The Game. It’s easy to just put all the blame for the loss on Kelly, because of a couple of bad play calls, but then-starting quarterback Will Howard threw arguably his worst interception of the season long before many of the head-scratching play calls. Howard’s first interception in the first quarter of that game led to Michigan’s only touchdown in that game.

Howard wasn’t the only one who played tight, the Buckeyes’ offensive line had its worst game of the season, and kicker Jayden Fielding missed a couple of crucial field goals from very short-range. The Buckeyes, as a whole, looked nervous and completely different than the team that would go on to win the national championship. 

If Day can simply get his team to play at the level we’ve seen it play in pretty much every other game this season, the Buckeyes will have no issues with Michigan, even if the play-calling isn’t perfect.

It seems that Day’s approach to The Game this year is to treat the regular season finale like any other game. Instead of hosting the marching band in practice this week as they usually do, the Buckeyes did so during their second off week.

Will that approach work? I’m not sure, but I don’t see how it could hurt.

So much of the focus has been on Day heading into The Game, because he boasts an ugly 1-4 record against Michigan, but ultimately, the players are the ones who decide the game. 

I think one of the reasons Ohio State played so tight last year is because there was so much pressure to get that loaded 2021 class, which included stars, such as Jack Sawyer, JT Tuimoloau, Emeka Egbuka and TreVeyon Henderson, their first pair of gold pants.

There was so much pressure on these players to play well against Michigan in the first place, but heading into last year’s game, it felt like all of those players had their respective legacies on the line. At that point, having no hardware to show for their entire Buckeye careers, it felt like Ohio State simply had to beat Michigan last year to save those seniors’ legacies.

This year, that sort of pressure isn’t there. Many of the leaders on this team not only have that national championship win under their belts, but they also don’t have the repeated failures against the Wolverines. Star receiver Jeremiah Smith has only lost to Michigan once, junior safety Caleb Downs has only played in The Game once and redshirt freshman quarterback Julian Sayin has never played a single snap against Michigan.

Admittedly, those players haven’t faced much adversity this season, but they’ve seemed to be a fairly confident bunch. I think it bodes well for this team that many of the leaders of this team have limited experience against Michigan.

Ohio State is a better team than Michigan, I think very few even in Ann Arbor would question that. If the Buckeyes can play anywhere close to their best they’ll snap their losing streak, over the last four years that has been a big ‘if.’ This year, though, I believe the Buckeyes will do enough to finally beat Michigan.